The rumored Blue Jays backup plan for Juan Soto could seal Ross Atkins’ fate

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the middle of the Juan Soto sweepstakes, but we’ve all seen how this story ends. Last winter, Toronto bet hard on Shohei Ohtani and almost succeeded. However, when Ohtani decided to sign with LA, the Blue Jays’ offseason plans fell apart.

Toronto is expected to play aggressively with or without Soto, but that can be said for any team committed to the Soto front. Both New York teams, Boston and Philadelphia are expected to pursue multiple All-Stars in the coming weeks. Many of the top non-Soto free agents are pitchers. The Orioles, Braves and Giants will all capture the pitching market. Toronto is not alone in its ambition this winter.

So what happens if (or when) Soto signs somewhere other than Toronto? Ross Atkins will likely try to get into the mix for Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman and others, but the Blue Jays aren’t being touted as favorites for any of these people. There’s a good chance that Atkins will get desperate and, instead of underspending as he did last winter, overspend on the wrong “star.”

Bleacher Report’s Jon Heyman recently identified New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso as a potential Blue Jays Plan B. That would mean Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be moved to third base and Alonso placed at first base for the next five years, which seems like a major challenge. fateful plan.

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There is a ton of pressure on Atkins and the front office this winter. The Blue Jays have signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette two stars seemingly willing to extend their contracts, and yet neither have signed a new deal. Both will be free agents within a year. Toronto finished 14 games under .500 last season, so it’s hard to consider them contenders without substantial additions.

Alonso is very good. Let’s not underestimate his ability to impact victory as perhaps the best pure slugger in recent National League history. The 29-year-old finished the 2024 campaign with 2.6 WAR, .240/.329/.459 splits and 34 home runs. His hot and cold tendencies are maddening, but Alonso peaks as high as anyone in the MLB. His postseason heroics for New York are a sign in his favor.

And yet Alonso’s impact pales in comparison to Soto – and other free agents in the second or third tier after Soto. He’s an average defender at first base, and he’ll only get worse over time. First basemen tend to age in complicated ways, especially without strong defense or extremely disciplined approaches at the plate. Alonso has raw power for days, but his strikeout numbers aren’t great. You just know production will drop somewhere in the early to mid 30’s.

Guerrero’s glove is fine at first base, but a move to third base would put an unrealistic amount of defensive responsibilities on his plate. There is tremendous upside with Guerrero and Alonso at the heart of Toronto’s lineup, but unless the Blue Jays continue to build out the roster with multiple high-level defensemen and solid contact bats, the holes will remain prevalent. Alonso is a four-time All-Star – a true impact bat – but the Blue Jays’ problems extend far beyond what he can solve.

Atkins must put Toronto on the postseason circuit and convince its current stars to re-sign. If the Blue Jays put all their eggs in Pete Alonso’s basket and encountered one more problem, that franchise could collapse in record time. Alonso is great as a piece of the puzzle. If he becomes Toronto’s main star within a year of the departures of Guerrero and Bichette, the Blue Jays will be in trouble. And Ross Atkins…well, he probably won’t have a job north of the border.