The addition of Blake Snell from the Dodgers could lead the hated rival to a terrible mistake

As if there was any doubt, the Los Angeles Dodgers made the first big jump of the offseason, signing Blake Snell to a massive five-year contract. Snell joins the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, in what is arguably the best and deepest rotation in all of baseball, let alone the NL West. The defending World Series champions got a lot better.

Not only did the Dodgers manage to sign one of the best pitchers available, but they also managed to steal him away from the team he was a part of last season, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants still have Logan Webb and a few intriguing pieces in their rotation, but to be better than the 80-82 team they were last season, replacing Snell is at the very least a must.

Fortunately for Giants fans, the team reportedly has “significant interest” in the top starting pitcher on the open market, Corbin Burnes, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While that sounds good on paper, signing Burnes could prove to be a terrible mistake.

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Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in the middle of the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He has posted a sub-3.00 ERA during that span, made four All-Star teams and even won a Cy Young award in 2021. Plus, he’s been remarkably durable, something Snell can’t match.

As promising as Burnes looks on paper, there are a few glaring warning signs.

First, considering he’s almost two full years younger than Snell, Burnes is getting more years on his contract, which is always a bit concerning for a pitcher.

Second, while Burnes is still elite, some numbers suggest he is heading in the wrong direction. For example, his strikeout rate has dropped in each of his last five seasons. In 2020, this percentage was even 36.7 percent, last season it was only 23.1 percent. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 51st percentile in strikeout rate, which isn’t ideal for a top prospect who just turned 30 years old. On the other hand, Snell’s 34.7 percent strikeout rate this past season was a career-best.

Not only has Burnes seen a rapid decline in his strikeout rate, but the opposition is also swaying and missing less on his pitches. Burnes’ velocity on his best pitch – his cutter – was actually slightly higher this past season, but according to Baseball Savant he still generated just a touch of just 19 percent, which was a career low. His best thrown pitch – his curveball – had a 37.8 percent whiff rate. While that is a very solid number for some, it was his lowest whiff rate on that field since 2018, his rookie season. Burnes was a reliever that year and threw that pitch only 6.8 percent of the time.

The results are still there for now, but his work doesn’t seem to be nearly as dominant as it once was. Snell’s departure, especially to the Dodgers, certainly puts pressure on Buster Posey and company. to make moves, but a move for Burnes after missing out on Snell could prove to be a crucial mistake by the time Burnes’ massive contract finally expires. There’s reason to believe that things will go well for Burnes in the coming years, but given the trend of his business, that contract could age incredibly poorly.